The markets are much more interested in America's long-term trajectory than they are in feeling that there is an acute short-term crisis.
Sentiment: NEGATIVE
If there's been a crisis in a market, you don't tend to have a new crisis in that market until the people who went through the last crisis aren't in the system anymore.
A long-term crisis, after a certain point, no longer seems like a crisis. It seems like the way things are.
In a crisis, markets always look to see who is the next-worst off and proactively begin shying away from them.
I've been through periods of stress, turbulence in the market for over the course of my career, various times, and never in any of those other periods have we had the advantage of a strong economy underpinning the markets.
Markets are frequently ahead of, and often out of sync with, the economy.
Every time there is a recession, consumers will typically be more cautious, more conservative, take more time, and make more serious price-performance trade-offs.
What we need to understand is, one, that there are market failures; and two, that there are things like asset bubbles and irrational exuberance. There are periods of booms, bubbles, and manias. These things, if left to themselves, can lead to crashes, to busts, to panics.
One thing on psychology, which we've always known, is that every investor says they're long-term - and they are until the market takes a hit.
The biggest potential and actual crises of the 21st century all have a strong, long, slow aspect with a significant lag between cause and effect. We have to train ourselves to be thinking in terms of longer-term results.
Fear tends to manifest itself much more quickly than greed, so volatile markets tend to be on the downside. In up markets, volatility tends to gradually decline.
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