Right now we think that rates will stay low, that you'll be able to get a mortgage below seven percent and that's kicked off a refinance boom that's going to put more money in the pockets of consumers.
Sentiment: NEGATIVE
We think if the economy remains weak that we could see mortgage rates trail down and we think that we could see rates below seven percent into early next year.
They flooded liquidity in the marketplace but the mortgage rate is based much more on expectations of inflation. So if the average investor believes that there is inflation coming, they'll move that rate up.
Should that worse scenario materialize, then most probably our propensity to increase interest rates will be weaker.
Well, we're just now seeing the reductions in mortgage rates. The mortgage rates are based on the ten-year rate and the Fed controls the overnight or the shorter rates.
Well, you know, we've got a lot of stimulus in the economy already from the tax cut, from the lowered interest rates, and also from the refinancing of mortgages.
Right now the long-term investors are telling us that they're not as concerned about inflation and so we're seeing these rates now move into the marketplace and out to the street - rates that individuals can get.
And so the danger for the housing industry is if we see interest rates rise.
And that's the one thing that people do not understand is that we have very low interest rates and if those go back to historical levels or even go back to scary thoughts that they're back in the late '70s, early '80s, then that's going to really be hard to actually pay off those debts. It's going to be a - it's going to be a very big problem.
I personally believe that there's going to be a good case for the government preserving some type of guarantee to make sure that people have the ability to borrow to finance a house even in a very damaging recession. I think there's going to be a good case for that.
The crisis and recession have led to very low interest rates, it is true, but these events have also destroyed jobs, hamstrung economic growth and led to sharp declines in the values of many homes and businesses.
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