Bottoms in the investment world don't end with four-year lows; they end with 10- or 15-year lows.
Sentiment: NEGATIVE
Obviously, no one knows when the market is going to bottom out, and I am certainly not an economist.
When stocks are attractive, you buy them. Sure, they can go lower. I've bought stocks at $12 that went to $2, but then they later went to $30. You just don't know when you can find the bottom.
By March '87 we're down to seven thousand, by the end of the year we're down to twelve hundred. The whole bottom just fell out of the market. It was bad for me because I was in Australia at the time.
In business, no one pays you to have a really good year and then 10 bad years.
The data strongly suggest that very good years in the U.S. stock market are followed by more good years.
Historically, we have always seen reversion to the mean. After stocks have had an unusually great 10 or 20 years, they typically turn in subpar results over the next 10 or 20, and after bad 10- to 20-year stretches, the next 10 to 20 tend to be above average.
In markets, you have rich years, and you have less rich years.
One year's poor form remains a blip but if it happens next year, you can say it's a trend.
But my system for over 30 years has been this: When stocks are attractive, you buy them. Sure, they can go lower. I've bought stocks at $12 that went to $2, but then they later went to $30.
There is always some chance of recession in any year. But the evidence suggests that expansions don't die of old age.
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