The global financial crisis - missed by most analysts - shows that most forecasters are poor at pricing in economic/financial risks, let alone geopolitical ones.
Sentiment: NEGATIVE
What we know about the global financial crisis is that we don't know very much.
We are incredibly poor predictors of our future.
The financial markets generally are unpredictable. So that one has to have different scenarios... The idea that you can actually predict what's going to happen contradicts my way of looking at the market.
In a crisis, markets always look to see who is the next-worst off and proactively begin shying away from them.
The financial and economic crash of 2008, the worst in over 75 years, is a major geopolitical setback for the United States and Europe.
Economists have allowed themselves to walk into a trap where we say we can forecast, but no serious economist thinks we can.
Forecasts vary in horizon, from a few seconds up to a few days in financial markets, compared to from one to several months for macro variables. We have to provide uncertainty intervals around the central forecasts to indicate the extent to which we are unclear about the future.
I think the association of economics with forecasting is unfortunate and is down to the fact that one great way to get an investment bank's name on business television is to hire a guy called a Chief Economist who will go and prognosticate.
Most investors give too much credence to the theory that prices are rational; they presume that a market collapse must have been justified by serious economic trouble.
My faith in the economic potential of the low carbon economy is not an untested prediction.
No opposing quotes found.