Secular cycles are the long periods - as long as decades - that come to define each market era. These cycles alternate between long-term bull and bear markets.
Sentiment: NEGATIVE
Historically, there has been a bull market in commodities every 20 or 30 years.
I think we're in the beginning of a bull market. When a bull market begins, nine months later the economy turns around.
Any bull market covers a multitude of sins, so there may be all sorts of problems with the current system that we won't see until the bear market comes.
Normally, if you have a huge category that leads a bear market all the way down to the bottom - like tech after 2000, or energy in the '80-'82 bear market - you get one quick pop, and then years of lag as we fight the old war.
Based on a lifetime of observations and a few decades in the markets, I understand that societies, beliefs and fashions all move in long arcs of time. We call these arcs several things: cycles, periods, eras.
The markets are efficient over time.
Markets are frequently ahead of, and often out of sync with, the economy.
Business cycles lengthened greatly during the 20th century, as central banks learned to manage national economies by raising and lowering interest rates.
We see China as a large market opportunity with similar cyclical economic cycles that occur throughout every economy.
All markets have boom and bust cycles, and I think venture capital market has even more exaggerated boom and bust cycles.
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