Cycles of shortage and surplus characterize the entire history of oil.
From Daniel Yergin
But that's not enough: To maintain energy security, one needs a supply system that provides a buffer against shocks. It needs large, flexible markets. And it's important to acknowledge the fact that the entire energy supply chain needs to be protected.
We experienced similar fears in the 1880s, at the end of World War I and II. And we ran out in the 1970s.
We are living in a new age of energy supply anxiety.
We are living in a different world now. You can see it everywhere in international relations: It was noteworthy that, after his visit to Washington, the Chinese president's next stop was Saudi Arabia.
This has a lot to do with the unrest in Nigeria, but also with the production loss after the hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, the decline in Iraq since the 2003 war, and the decline in Venezuelan output since 2002.
The starting point for energy security today as it has always been is diversification of supplies and sources.
The Russians are turning east to the Chinese - to the Europeans' surprise. It always seemed to me that the relationship between Russia and China would shift from being based in Marx and Lenin to being based in oil and gas.
So the major obstacle to the development of new supplies is not geology but what happens above ground: international affairs, politics, investment and technology.
People always underestimate the impact of technology. To give you an example: In the 1970s the frontier for offshore development was 200 meters, today it is 4,000 meters.
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