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Rational beliefs bring us closer to getting good results in the real world.

Predicting has a spotty record in science fiction. I've had some failures. On the other hand, I also predicted the fall of the Berlin Wall and the rise of fundamentalist Islam... and I'm not happy to be right in all of those cases.

In real life, I'm very rational, and I'm not very dramatic.

I don't think of myself predicting things. I'm expressing possibilities. Things that could happen. To a large extent it's a question of how badly people want them to.

Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge.

If one devalues rationality, the world tends to fall apart.

I'm bad at rationalisation - very bad.

Even the most analytical thinkers are predictably irrational; the really smart ones acknowledge and address their irrationalities.

If you learn one thing from having lived through decades of changing views, it is that all predictions are necessarily false.

Anything that gives us new knowledge gives us an opportunity to be more rational.