Whenever I see a forecast written out to two decimal places, I cannot help but wonder if there is a misunderstanding of the limitations of the data, and an illusion of precision.
Sentiment: NEGATIVE
I believe that economists put decimal points in their forecasts to show they have a sense of humor.
Be precise. A lack of precision is dangerous when the margin of error is small.
Precision is not one of the qualities that comes out in my work.
The key to making a good forecast is not in limiting yourself to quantitative information.
We really can't forecast all that well, and yet we pretend that we can, but we really can't.
Rounding to the nearest cent is sufficiently accurate for practical purposes.
Well the way we perceive accuracy and what accuracy is statistically are really two different things.
Numbers are the product of counting. Quantities are the product of measurement. This means that numbers can conceivably be accurate because there is a discontinuity between each integer and the next.
At the end of the day, the numbers that we're hearing are not going to be totally correct or not correct at all.
People don't realize that we cannot forecast the future. What we can do is have probabilities of what causes what, but that's as far as we go. And I've had a very successful career as a forecaster, starting in 1948 forward. The number of mistakes I have made are just awesome. There is no number large enough to account for that.
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