We really can't forecast all that well, and yet we pretend that we can, but we really can't.
Sentiment: NEGATIVE
Economists have allowed themselves to walk into a trap where we say we can forecast, but no serious economist thinks we can.
Forecasting is simply not a strength of the species; we are much better with tools and narrative storytelling.
The key to making a good forecast is not in limiting yourself to quantitative information.
Forecasting our futures is built into our psyches because we will soon have to manage that future. We have no choice. No matter how often we fail, we can never stop trying.
If you have to forecast, forecast often.
If you have reason to think that yesterday's forecast went wrong, there is no glory in sticking to it.
No one can forecast the economy with certainty.
One can't predict the weather more than a few days in advance.
The affairs of this world are so shifting and depend on so many accidents, that it is hard to form any judgment concerning the future; nay, we see from experience that the forecasts even of the wise almost always turn out false.
People don't realize that we cannot forecast the future. What we can do is have probabilities of what causes what, but that's as far as we go. And I've had a very successful career as a forecaster, starting in 1948 forward. The number of mistakes I have made are just awesome. There is no number large enough to account for that.