Forecasting is simply not a strength of the species; we are much better with tools and narrative storytelling.
Sentiment: NEGATIVE
We really can't forecast all that well, and yet we pretend that we can, but we really can't.
The key to making a good forecast is not in limiting yourself to quantitative information.
People don't realize that we cannot forecast the future. What we can do is have probabilities of what causes what, but that's as far as we go. And I've had a very successful career as a forecaster, starting in 1948 forward. The number of mistakes I have made are just awesome. There is no number large enough to account for that.
The affairs of this world are so shifting and depend on so many accidents, that it is hard to form any judgment concerning the future; nay, we see from experience that the forecasts even of the wise almost always turn out false.
If you have to forecast, forecast often.
Never forget this simple truism: Forecasting is marketing, plain and simple.
Science has not yet mastered prophecy. We predict too much for the next year and yet far too little for the next 10.
Humans are terrible at predicting the future. We really overestimate what we can do in the short term and underestimate what we can do in the long term... If we can glimpse even a couple of years into the future, even that's difficult to do.
If you have reason to think that yesterday's forecast went wrong, there is no glory in sticking to it.
Forecasting our futures is built into our psyches because we will soon have to manage that future. We have no choice. No matter how often we fail, we can never stop trying.