In 2008, when the global financial crisis struck, it was a bad year for a lot of developing countries, and it manifested itself in consumer confidence.
Sentiment: POSITIVE
The financial and economic crash of 2008, the worst in over 75 years, is a major geopolitical setback for the United States and Europe.
The consumer is going through a period around the world of uncertainty - whether geopolitical uncertainty, economic uncertainty - and that makes them a little nervous as well.
Consumers around the world are more aware of the multiple global crises we face than ever before, thanks to information found on the Internet.
In 2006, the global economy was doing well. In India, the political and economic situation was stable. All key macroeconomic indicators reflected an economy that was in robust good health.
I had to watch government fail for 25 years doing consumer reporting before I really saw it because intuitively, the reaction is problem, bring government and government will make it better.
We got into a recession because the global economy went into the recession and we're a big exporting nation.
The lesson of 2008 is that ultimately our markets are driven by confidence.
Americans reading the paper, listening to the news every single day, and all you hear is things are getting worse and worse. And that has a psychological effect on consumer confidence. That's what consumer confidence is.
Viewed from a distance, or through the eye of the All-Knowing CEO of the Universe, the crash of 2008 followed the usual pattern. A long-lived boom driven by cheap credit, going back as far as 1982 (though subject to interruptions in the mid-1980s and 1990s, and in 2001), came to grief because of a rise in the cost of borrowing money.
We are inheriting the worst financial system since the Depression. We're inheriting a situation - when people go back and study major banking crises a quarter century from now, the one that America developed in 2007 and 2008 is going to be one of those crises.
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