The thing that people associate with expertise, authoritativeness, kind of with a capital 'A,' don't correlate very well with who's actually good at making predictions.
Sentiment: NEGATIVE
There are domains in which expertise is not possible. Stock picking is a good example. And in long-term political strategic forecasting, it's been shown that experts are just not better than a dice-throwing monkey.
Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge.
An expert is someone who knows some of the worst mistakes, which can be made, in a very narrow field.
Who's to say who's an expert?
An expert is someone who has succeeded in making decisions and judgements simpler through knowing what to pay attention to and what to ignore.
An expert is someone who knows a lot about the past.
An expert is one who knows more and more about less and less.
I believe there is true expertise in some endeavors, and not in others. There is obviously no such thing as expertise in predicting the results of coin tosses, but there is expertise in predicting the behavior of lasers.
Experts often possess more data than judgment.
An expert is a person who avoids the small errors while sweeping on to the grand fallacy.
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