Never forget this simple truism: Forecasting is marketing, plain and simple.
Sentiment: NEGATIVE
If you have to forecast, forecast often.
Economic forecasting has actually got pretty good over the years, though admittedly, we don't always get it right.
Forecasting is simply not a strength of the species; we are much better with tools and narrative storytelling.
We really can't forecast all that well, and yet we pretend that we can, but we really can't.
The key to making a good forecast is not in limiting yourself to quantitative information.
Entrepreneurs can't forecast accurately, because they are trying something fundamentally new. So they will often be laughably behind plan - and on the brink of success.
I never understand why 'economist makes forecast' is ever a headline. Whether the economist in question is from the International Monetary Fund, a City forecasting group or the Treasury - a forecast is still not news.
Using a forecasting company is like going to a fortune-teller. If you believe the company and the color does not sell, who do you blame? The forecasters? No, you blame yourself.
Economists have allowed themselves to walk into a trap where we say we can forecast, but no serious economist thinks we can.
The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.
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