There are lots of people shaping decisions, and so if we want to predict correctly, we have to pay attention to everybody who is trying to shape the outcome, not just the people at the pinnacle of the decision-making pyramid.
Sentiment: NEGATIVE
We want to get 80%-85% of predictions right, not 100%. Or else we calibrated our estimates in the wrong way.
All things being equal, letting people make decisions for themselves will produce smarter outcomes, collectively, than relying on government planners.
In order to predict effectively, we need to use science. And the reason that we need to use science is because then we can reproduce what we're doing; it's not just wisdom or guesswork. And if we can predict, then we can engineer the future.
There's a lot of randomness in the decisions that people make.
I don't think of myself predicting things. I'm expressing possibilities. Things that could happen. To a large extent it's a question of how badly people want them to.
Prediction is not just one of the things your brain does. It is the primary function of the neo-cortex, and the foundation of intelligence.
The thing that people associate with expertise, authoritativeness, kind of with a capital 'A,' don't correlate very well with who's actually good at making predictions.
Decisions are made by those who show up.
Informed decision-making comes from a long tradition of guessing and then blaming others for inadequate results.
Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge.