The Treasury has enough trouble with forecasts even when they are trying to get them right.
Sentiment: NEGATIVE
We really can't forecast all that well, and yet we pretend that we can, but we really can't.
Economic forecasting has actually got pretty good over the years, though admittedly, we don't always get it right.
True enough, the Fed needs radical reforms. In particular, it needs to replace its failed forecasting models and be rid of the academics who overwhelm the Fed system.
It is very difficult to predict when a bond crisis could happen.
The global financial crisis - missed by most analysts - shows that most forecasters are poor at pricing in economic/financial risks, let alone geopolitical ones.
Economists have allowed themselves to walk into a trap where we say we can forecast, but no serious economist thinks we can.
If you have reason to think that yesterday's forecast went wrong, there is no glory in sticking to it.
I never understand why 'economist makes forecast' is ever a headline. Whether the economist in question is from the International Monetary Fund, a City forecasting group or the Treasury - a forecast is still not news.
This Department of Treasury, run by this administration, using the same tried and true accounting methods that every business in America uses, cast new light on the fiscal severity that our Nation is facing, what some would call a mess.
I will be the first to say that it is always difficult to get monetary policy just right. But the Fed's analytical prowess is top-notch, and our forecasting record is second to none.